Episode #281 – Confirmation Bias: The Most Dangerous Cognitive Trap

In this episode of The Litigation Psychology Podcast, Bill Kanasky, Jr., Ph.D. discusses confirmation bias and its destructive impact on litigation decision-making. He explains that confirmation bias — when attorneys or claims professionals interpret case facts in ways that support their preexisting beliefs — is one of the most dangerous cognitive traps in civil litigation. Plaintiff attorneys have recognized this risk in their own thinking and combat it through early and consistent jury research, conducting multiple focus groups throughout case development to uncover blind spots and test themes.

Bill contrasts this with defense teams that often rely on gut feelings, hunches, or prior cases rather than data from the case at hand. Using a real fatality case example, he illustrates how an insurance company’s refusal to fund jury research, despite facing a potential $25 million exposure, left the defense flying blind while the plaintiff likely had extensive data on juror perceptions, themes, and damages. This imbalance, he argues, fuels nuclear verdicts and demonstrates why relying on instinct instead of evidence is so costly.

To counter confirmation bias, Bill advocates for early, cost-effective jury research, even pre-suit. He emphasizes that small, exploratory focus groups can act as pilot studies that guide case strategy, discovery, witness preparation, and expert planning long before trial. By investing early in data-driven insights, defense teams can make more informed settlement decisions, reduce uncertainty, and prevent disastrous verdicts.